Sustainability_ The Ultimate Quest-Part I_ The Oxford Round Table (ORT) Forum on Public Policy

This has been a round-about trip which I am sure many of you have encountered in your web searching and blogging activities. I have split the journey into several parts.

PART I:
My meanders began by a visit to a site which appeared via AdSense publicity on my blog, thanks to The “Oxford Round Table’s (ORT) Forum on Public Policy now celebrating their 20th birthday with an “Round Table” on Environment and Sustainability held between August 10 to August 15 at St. Anne's College, Oxford.

The ORT site also references papers published in the 2007 forum.

Prof. Ruth A. Reck, Univ. of California, Davis, coordinated the 2008 Oxford Round Table session entitled: Sustainability_ The Ultimate Quest. Ruth’s own paper was entitled Setting the Balance for Global Climate Change: Scientific Evidence and the Consequences for Society following her article published the previous year in The Forum on Public Policy, Vol. 4 No. 3, 2007, title: "Climate Change and Sustainable Development."

These meetings are distinctly Interdisciplinary. Scholars representing several disciples from Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, and the United States presented papers regarding the world quest for sustainability. They have an equally distinctive “OCDE – Forum” ring to them in both in name and in spirit, may I add.

Cf. Balancing Globalization. The OCDE forum 2006, title ! link via 2 previous posts on this blog:
1. Climate Change 3 part series from FT-Financial Times-"No getting away from it" Follow-up from OCDE Forum 2008?
2. OCDE Forum 2008 : Climate Change, Growth , Stability: Prime Innovation Motivation Conversation 2-4 June 2008?

Although all the papers presented, bar one are limited to subscribers. Arguably not the best way to achieve the global reach required for “The” number one world quest by Round Table participants. However the abstracts provide excellent summaries to the busy government or company executive, ONG, green movement activists, concerned scientists and general public.

Setting the Balance for Global Climate Change: Scientific Evidence and the Consequences for Society by Ruth A. Reck, Prof. of Atmospheric Science, Dept of Land, Air and Water Resources, School of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Univ of California.

Abstract excerpt quoted : (full description via ORT.)
"It has become clear to many scientists that the problems of global climate change are the most pressing issues the world faces, far exceeding the concerns of terrorism and the need to promote democracy around the world. In fact the outcomes of these other major concerns may hinge in great part upon our ability to deal with the consequences that changes in climate will have on the world's populations. Because climate has been recognized to be the most serious for the economically challenged peoples it follows that decreasing food availability, decreasing fresh water resources and deterioration of living conditions can but only add to the burdens of those less well off. Regions become politically more unstable the more unstable the weather that they experience. It is a natural consequence. It is within this frame of reference that we embark upon this topic of managing in the face of changing climatic conditions.

In this paper we review the present IPCC Reports, released in 2007, discuss the perilous nature of the current climate situation, and review some of the most recent research findings to support this conclusion. "

The full abstract is available via ORT Forum on Public Policy and from the glimpse above you can easily see that it is well worth the full read.

Note: The Oxford Round Table is a series of interdisciplinary conferences organized and run by an educational organization based in California and at Harris Manchester College in the United Kingdom, which is incorporated as a for-profit corporation in Kentucky,[1] and a not-for-profit corporation in Kentucky,[2] Illinois,[3] and England and Wales.[4] [main LINK]

The full paper title hinted at in the text above is "Clouds in a Warmer Climate: Friend or Foe?"[Pdf] by Sonia Lasher-Trapp. A little gem if I may say so.

For the "too busy executive here is a snip:

"From the most recent, best estimates, clouds
appear to be a “friend” in that they help to cool the earth and offset global warming, but it is yet too early to tell how their assistance may change as the earth‟s climate changes."

Source:
Oxford Round Table Forum on public policy

Forgotten Scientists? -"Should auld acquaintences be forgot and never brought to mind!"

"Should auld acquaintances be forgot

and never brought to mind!"

Here's a cup o'(of) kindness yet

For the "sake o' auld lang syne*""

(For "old time's sake")

Words by R. Burns.

The song is sung pretty near world wide to ring in the New Year.

Rather fitting both for the current "financial" crises, and specifically for my much more eminent colleagues Nobel Prize candidates - "The Nobel Class" most of whom will be forgotten to the general public, sometimes happily for some, sometimes not for others. Age and a rich experience is certainly a great compensation for some members of the "Nobel Class". Also it is only recently about the last ten years or so that breakthroughs in the more applied domains have been acknowledged, by the Nobel Committee, luckily for the general public and the many simply hardworking scientist or scientist turned manager!


This post follows directly and rapidly ("a quickie") following my previous post, yesterday here in "Conversations" cf. also my post this morning in my blog: "The Materials Chemists" on the "Human-Angle" in this years Nobel Prize 2008.

Thanks to internet and the press releases of the major Organisations, R&D Insitutes and Universities etc. I have been able to find the link to the French side in the isolation of HIV (V for virus) taken as an example in my previous post.

Without further ado here is the link in english to Institut Pasteur's role in this progress -LINK.

The important decision to tackle the problem in France dates from around 1982

Willy Rozenbaum, French clinician working at Hôpital Bichat at the time & Prof & Research Director Jean-Claude Chermann have been recently brought to the fore.

I hasten to add that, far from a specialist in these fields: medicine, biochemistry... I must refrain from further comment on the scientific approach. From a human stand point dare I say it, I refrained from donating blood for at least five years from 1986 to 1993.

Of course there are a number of famous cases of scientist being passed by which were certainly in the back-of-my mind (sub-conscience) I have a name on the tip of my tongue but ...

Let's not join the Financial Community and lose sight of realiy.

Cheers & keep fit & healthy.

NOBEL PRIZE AWARDS -2008 The Father of Invention - Mother of Great Innovation -A sure source for Discussion and Disagreement

No member of the scientific community nor blog on Science based Innovation can ignore the work done by the Nobel Prize Organization. This week and next will see the 2008 Nobel Prize winners. I have included for your keen attention the Nobel Prize Widget to keep us all informed. Feel free to "Innovated by sticking it on your blog or website.

"This-Above-All"
Now why, oh why, you may ask, have I brought up the "Conversation item in the title "A sure source for Discussion and Disagreement". Yes of course it is the title of my Blog and an underlying theme "across the board. More importantly, regular followers of science and scientific news, invention, innovation will have many ideas as to what this may be. For the less involved, including myself, I can easily imagine that there is substantial lobbying, battles in communication, and all manner of strategies and tactics involved, and projects which would benefit greatly from the renown of this most prestigious award (sorry for we contenders in "The Best or Worst Blog Awards contest!)...


More important in my opinion is the fact that so many scientists involved are "Nobel Class" and I wish to propose that the "Class" too should be given the just acknowledgement as it is neither possible nor desirable that "The Olympic Gold Medal in Science - The Nobel Prize" be given to "The Whole Class."



As a pointer or tag: let me just mention a great research start for a budding journalist could be the award of the 2008 Prize for Medicine. Do not get me wrong this is in no way "Bashing the French" with my superior english or something. Quite the contrary, just before writing this I was watching the excellent french daily medical magazine on the French-German joint TV Arte. An illuminating behind the scenes portrait of the role of about 5 professors and researchers associated with the prestigious Institut Pasteur played leading roles. Two are 2008 award winners. The project initiator in France Prof. Rosenbaum, presented his inside knowledge and the fact that his focus on preventive medicine and open communication, in the form of a Newsletter from an Atlanta Medical Institute brought immunodeficiency disease cases in US to his attention. He addressed The Institute Pasteur with the result we know today. The decision appears as I understand him to have been given to one leading but lesser known researcher, the youngster Prof. Françoise Barré-Sinoussi (b.1947) at Pasteur and the extremely well known Prof Montagnier(b. 1932), forced into retirement at 65y, a few years ago, now heading projects in USA. Prof. Rosenbaum paid great tribute also to the excellence of their US colleagues, with an enigmatic expression "perhaps too good."? And again "Pasteur's communication - [communication policy may be the new research winners "drug." -JA]

Now you see too that such a slant completely ignores that half of the Prize went to Harald zur Hausen (b. 1936), of the German Cancer Research Centre Heidelberg, Germany "for his discovery of human papilloma viruses causing cervical cancer"

However the incredible human side of this very high level science remains to be told.

I posted a piece on the search for neutrinos - "The materials science of materials science" Link to my post and poem on Neutrinos in which I mention Clyde Lorrain Cowan, Chemist, WWII-Hero, and Nobel prize winner in Physics whose family encountered difficulty in having their father recognised also as a War Hero highly deserving a place of honour in the US Military Grave Yard in Arlington, Virginia. - now acknowledged.

To support this request for more on the "human angle" I would be pleased to have your comments and information, web links on such subjects. As a metallurgist and materials scienctist physics and chemistry will naturally be my prefered research areas.

Thanks in advance.

ref: Nobel Prize Organisation

Recession and The Environment II – Climate Change: Root Causes and Solutions

Confidential.

Here you will find further elements to support the daring- almost presumptuous hypothesis advanced in my previous post "Recession and The Environment I. "

Many of you may have been surprised, as I was myself, (confidentially) by the extent of my uncharacteristic daring leading to the first analysis and opinion, as to the root causes and solutions to the the top "Re-current Affairs" issue of the day: "Economic & Financial Recession" cf. Title above.

Well rather than back-off, I'm sure you will be pleased to read further evidence in support of my previous hypothesis. The urge to further research the issue came rapidly. Evidence came equally rapidly. A couple of Google searches and my experience of good sources turned up a comment on "Recession, Energy <=>Environment, Finite Resources, Climate Change

Contributor whose "alias?" is "MARKANASH" posted this comment 24 Sep 2008, on the Idle Scrawl Paul Mason's blog. Paul is a much travelled Economist and BBC reporter.

Quote:
"You're totally missing one fundamental point. Our present way of life is predicated on using tomorrow's money to pay for what we want today (debt). This in turn relies on endless economic growth. Economic growth on the scale to which we have become accustomed is based almost entirely on cheap energy - stacked and stored in the earth for millions of years and now having been gorged by humans for the past 100 years. The era of cheap energy ends about now; our Energy Return on Energy Invested will drop precipitously in the coming decade or two. No amount of fancy, debt-fuelled financial products, derivatives and systems will operate without reliable (ie cheap energy based) economic growth. The rates of economic growth we've experienced in our lifetimes are about to cease (or at least fall dramatically) as we figure out how to live within our energy means. So, forget trying to put back into its shell the scrambled egg that is now the Anglo-US financial system. Start figuring out how to live without cheap energy and, so, without unsustainable economic growth. I don't have the answers, but I do know that the transition from us relying on cheap (borrowed) energy to a lifestyle based on the sustainable use of real-time energy is going to be painful. Bankers and financiers have yet to see the problem, let alone figure out solutions. "


My rapid search turned-up complimentary evidence in support of MARKANASH's blunt opinion on bankers and financiers:

There is a very commonly held view and justifiable public outcry on executive remuneration packages-here "Top B's" B short for merchant bankers - and their followers. This is put forward by many as a leading root cause of the present predicament. Here I contend that this fits the "irresponsibility theme" under pinning Pacala's heart felt analyis and disgust, which I share to a large extent and amplify, need I add. (cf. my previous post).

One of my "hero's-mentors", here in France, is Jean Francois Kahn, JFK to the intimates, we have met a couple of times - no kidding. JFK, as he has done for several years now, again lashes out at the irresponsible discrepancy between Top Dog remuneration packages and results, and also to their collective disconnection or memory loss from common reality.
JFK has a very imagery way of situating the levels of such packages. He compares the the top Dog Salaries & remuneration packages to the number of centuries the common worker on minimum wage would need to work. Yes it runs into centuries! From memory this tallies up to something like from the 6th century to the present day (15 centuries)!!!

In the current case he considers that Bankers morality - professional ethics (responsibility) is strongly questionable and a major contributing factor to the current financial crisis and recession. He remarks that the president of Lehmans Bros helped himself to 23M$ salary or package last year while in the same year he recommended that the US admin. refuse a 5M$ budget to help under-privileged - the dirt poor US citizens. This is just one example of many. Kahn calling "a spade a spade" frankly considers this behaviour to be totally immoral, and who can disagree? I wonder how much fresh cash this approach may generate?

Here rests the case for the prosecution!

Source: Paul Mason's blog post "We are not doomed: Discuss" which started the debate among his contributors, eg. "markanash" quoted above amoung others. Paul supplies links to short summaries of underlying economic theory. It's a quick read & well worth a squint which is all the reading necessary - He defends the system concluding: "In short I propose what could come out of this is a highly regulated and more stable info-capitalism." Wonder why it did not come before? Then my experience comes from ... partly through Aeronautic & Nuclear Materials Quality Control, Assurance Standards & Stringent Clients Requirements - no kidding there, at least in the West. No wonder students flee the exigence of science and engineering!

Recession and The Environment I – Climate Change -Root Causes and Solutions

THE AIM of this post:

I propose to develop the hypothesis that lack of vigour to combat climate change, especially by world leading US administration, is one root cause, if not the main root cause for the current economic-financial recession. I base this on the stabilising wedge methodology proposed by Pacala & Socolow and specifically in the excellent interview given by Pacala to IOP – Environmental Research. (If you have any comments on where the European Union stands in this I'd be more than pleased to hear)

Introduction-Summary.

I can’t do a better summary of the IOP* – Pacala** interview than that of Liz Kalaugher, editor of the relative new IOP environmentalresearchweb.(start 2007)
[ *IOP is the highly respected, Institute of Physics UK – **Pacala is with R. Socolow, the inventors of the Wedge Methodology-Tool to combate climate change by innovation from existing technology [Link] both are professors at Princeton Uni., He describes this himself in the interview as “The wedges paper, was never really intended as a practical scheme for deploying technology but rather as a way to get people to think about the problem so that those who were stalling with obfuscatory language would have to stop."] – [Mores the pity, One step forward two steps back? – JA.]

To Quote Liz: “Back in 2004, Stephen Pacala and Rob Socolow of Princeton University, US, came up with the concept of "stabilization wedges", a way of mixing and matching currently available technologies to cut carbon emissions by the amount needed to stabilize the climate. The paper was a reaction to what Pacala and Socolow saw as strategy to stall action on global warming by the Bush administration by claiming that the world lacked the technology to tackle it. While any one of today’s technologies alone is unable to meet the challenge, the pair showed that a portfolio of such solutions would be up to the job.”

Pacala describes how emissions and the planet have changed since publication of the wedges paper, the potential effects of a recession, how easy it might be to invent-[Innovate may be a better term] our way out of the problem, and his new work on calculating fair national emissions caps by assigning individual carbon allowances. (rationing-ration cards for carbon footprints –WWII wartime – post wartime technique-JA)

Four aggravating main developments since the fourth IPCC Report 2007-International Panel on Climate Change .

1. The first change since the IPCC report has to do with emissions growing too quickly.
2-3. the second and third have to do with carbon sinks being weaker than they were before.
4. Even if carbon sinks had not weaken, Ice sheet dynamics impose a tightening of the original 50y target. Now we need to reach a much more stringent one nearer 30y than we thought it was"
“There’s no good news in the mix and there’s plenty of bad news but the jury’s still out, we’ll have to wait and see.”

Pacala & Socolow’s motives:

-Stop the Bush Admin from stalling.
-Stop ‘the group of scientists that were writing grant proposals masquerading as energy assessments.” - “The call for blue sky research.”
-Stop the “unhealthy collusion between the scientific community" who believed that there was a serious problem and a political movement that didn’t”.
(NB. I seldom use itallics, perfering Straight,Upright characters.)

As a wise experienced scientist Pacala concludes that:
“It would be astonishing if it [CO2 The Wedge Methodology-Tool] weren’t false in many ways, but what we said was accurate at the time (2004 &Today).

Pacala et al - current road-map on Carbon Footprint

A. More on Stalling - the Stallers:

The China –US CO2 slanging match and All stallers put roughly is:

eg. China says “You [USA] already had your economic growth and now it’s our turn” and US points its finger at China and says it’s not fair to expect us to do that unilaterally when you’re the largest emitter in the world now. [cf. P. Senges simplified vicious circle concept using the Cold War Nuclear Arms race -You increase "its worth a bomb" -We increase... = Inflation -worth a bomb(?) fortunately without the big bang-Ultimate Crash, yet! -JA)

Pacala replies: “This rhetoric of fairness that reminds me a little bit of the former rhetoric of technological unreadiness. It’s just a gigantic stalling gambit.”

He provides several strong arguments in support of this :
“Concept of fairness that "they" are actually using here do not appear congruent with the concepts of fairness we use in our everyday lives.”

“Past emissions in the US do not necessarily have anything to do with the people there today, many are relatively new immigrants.”

“You receive the benefits of your western standard of wealth and you distribute the emissions costs to everyone in the world. The same is true of the Chinese person who has your income. It’s not that I have anything against China, but I don’t see why the wealthy in Shanghai ought to get a free ride.” [ Pacala does not mention the relative statistics, but the point is general.]
“Those dollars and the emissions that go with them have exactly the same robber baron roots as the money in your bank account. Money is promiscuous – it travels around the world.”

B. THE FILTHY RICH:
“You receive the benefits of your western standard of wealth and you distribute the emissions costs to everyone in the world.”

Pacala et al. are working, in his own words, on a “fancy-schmancy statistical thing;” effectively an “Analytical Accountancy Method –ie physically based” bottom-up (individual) Emissions Capping System aggregating national caps to international one all based on the individual etc. [ a sort of Rationing system to call a spade a spade].

He only hints at some basics since at the time of the interview 12 May 08 their work had not been published.

“You could have one number for the whole world, reducing it every year. Although I can’t tell you precisely what the answer is because the work is not yet published, I will tell you that it simultaneously passes the laugh test and offers sensible”.

“One hint is that the climate problem turns out to be almost entirely a problem of the wealthy – 50% of emissions are caused by the top 700 million emitters. And a substantial fraction of those people – on the order of a fifth – actually live in developing countries.”

"It’s got a nice little [read nasty?] feedback loop in it, if you grow faster economically and you have a whole bunch of rich people then your target comes down faster. If you grow slower and your people stay poor then you never hit the cap."

[It’s well known that the wrong way forward is to have a Russian style economic and industrial collapse thereby reducing emissions drastically – The "wise-cracks” call this “Schumpeter"[Link1] destructive creation-innovation process[Link2] or something ” – (you can’t go down any further so, if you live through it, the only way is up-rebuild. Not sure if that's what Pacala mean't. There are well-off-rich & stinking rich, & same on the poor man scale. I must re-read him - JA]

“I’ve got money now and I’m the one that’s spending it. I’m getting all the pleasure but I’m distributing all the pain” says Pacala. [Sounds about right, and I would suggest to the chaps in Princeton, if their jobs are not on the line, that they would do well to start not at the bottom but near the National leadership level to be credible all down the line – battle of the comms-(communication) aside! If their jobs are at risk it's time to call on me, confidentially.

See what I mean: Pacala quotes “If the US will just get out in front and act unilaterally, it seems to me that’s a major missing element that would cause everyone else who’s missing their Kyoto targets to buck up and start to deliver on their own commitments.”

My proposed conclusion

But US did not sign Kyoto, and push it forward - as in the famous SALT treaties on nuclear arms of which I am no expert-, and this has sent all the wrong messages. It could plausibly be argued that this is the root cause of the current financial crash and recession-JA.

Solution-
cf. Pacala approach above and their abundant freely available online work.

Let me add: I urge you the source and comment -naturally praise is preferable, abuse tolerated, but Above-All all, information is necessary and will be shared unless otherwise requested. Fee free - Tighter emissions rationing is on the agenda and economic resession will not be tollerated - work that one out.

Source: Link

NB. As the fastest evolving current "Affairs" theme I have carried out a little more research and will share this with you in my next post.

Best Creative Errors - Can be Great Conversation Starters - One from Wired Science on "Dutch Flood Control Strategy"

This post is a direct result of my research to come to grips with the previous one - R.J. Barendse on the Dutch excellence on landscaping, land reclamation and flood control gained from the often wild North Sea over at least the last 500 years, at least until now.
[Direct Link to my RJB. Brad Delong previous post]

Pity I forgot the key words used on my google search but I dug-up a summary of one of the Dutch Plans to construct an off-shore barrier, an island in the form of a tulip, complete with super satellite images. The linking what the Dutch are likely to do on their home shores with much criticised apparently exaggeratedly luxurious plans such as those of Dubai and the UAE's sand bank islands known the Flat Counties record is to say the least "hazardous". (even if their is credible possibility of an " Armada" of Dutch designers and contractors on the UAE projects - Nothing like getting exercise and experience..! Pure supposition.) [cf also posted comments -Source I].
It has come back to me - I was looking for a reference to the enormous annual budgets the Netherlands will invest to allay predictions (near certitudes) of disastrous effects of climate change on the "Flat Countries" 2nd only to Bangladesh, I am led to believe. cf Source I below)

Well "Wired Sciences post" sparked an incredible list of comments, mostly critical and in down right disagreement at least equal in weight to those of my previous post. The comments are short and well worth a reading, many provide links in support of their facts and opinions. Great Stuff.

Let me conclude with supporting a "call" a possible new "conversation starter" to use Harvard Universities Eminent Professorial Blogs by quoting two posts from Wired Sci.

"Funny this article goes beyond the environmental issue of disappearing coastline and the dutch isles due to rising sea-levels.The location where the tulip is placed, is where the highest sea and river-mouth currents flow. It has been a plan for decennial to make an artificial island right there on that location. Shaping it into a tulip or a clog wouldn't be too bad whilst space-tourism is booming!Get your data right dudes, and read newspapers that have more foreign (worldly) news! Posted by: HO Winkelaar Dec 21, 2007 2:48:39 PM (cf. Wired ref below) and even more succinctly even if a bit large as the :
TOP 100 - The hottest competition online!
Posted by: gamblert Dec 21, 2007 5:14:49 PM "

May I add, that at a very rough guess, this competition is "awefully" near top position!


Source I : Wired Science post by By Alexis Madrigal.

Highly recommendable for the Satellite Photo of Dutch Coastline and Inscribed Future Landscape Design and even more so for the number and quality of comments generated together with commentators supported evidence, via their many links.

One Contributor even remarked caustically that:

"NB. This isn't even news, we (the Dutch) have had plans like this and executed then since 500BC."

Source II comment by
Posted by: Martijn ten Napel Dec 23, 2007 3:13:48 AM cf. Wired for all comments




First Class Sources on this "Millennium Class Approach are:

Flood Control in the Netherlands from Wikipedia.

And my favourite the excellent highly professional description of

the Dutch Approach - LINK to flood control and landscaping,

and a survey of Dams and Leeves

All Posted by: Gerard Dec 22, 2007 6:00:34 AM on Wired Science
Whose very mild closing comment "I'm sure that engineering a tulip shaped island is a better idea then having flood defences that are made out of thin foil" left me in the dark. Could he be referring to The US Flood Defenses? Thank you Gerard et al.

Guns, gems and steel: The Fate(s) of Human Societies

This is a link to post today on my "This-Above-All" blogsite. From an overview deductions from World History on the Fates of Human Societies, I choose to bring to the fore some reflections on Dutch past history from medieval time till the present day in their fight to master landscaping for agriculture and flood-fighting due to R.J. Barendse.

The above slightly modified title comes from a the book by J. Diamond "Guns grains and steel: The Fate of Human Society" and from it's review by the Economist and Academic, Brad Delong which in turn led to lively comments around 1999-2000, when the book was reviewed.

[LINK].