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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Hot Air_Credibility By the Numbers

Lisa K. Williams editor of Envronmental Protection Webzine picked up a few "Without Hot Air" crackers in her article: "Credibility By the Numbers", which I am sure will help Prof David MacKAY to continue feeding anecdotes for the Environmental and Renewable energy themes themes of his freely available book of the same name, "Without Hot Air." David of course brings great credibility to his approach, numbers and graphs.

Background
"Many news outlets on Aug. 5 picked up the Department of Energy (DOE) release noting that the third analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 agreed that the costs to consumers will be low—about 23 cents a day. The statement said: "The EIA analysis projects an increased cost of about $83 (adjusted for inflation) by 2030 — or roughly 23 cents a day." (Is that $83 more dollars or roughly 23 cents a day on top of what I pay now?)

Lisa took a closer look at the figures, hiden in page42. and and what about the admin jargon? Again!

"Consumption losses? Oh, that means consumer spending, Jonatan Cogan the DOE spoesman explained.

Continuing her search for the truth:

"Alan Beamon, director of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting's Coal and Electric Power Division. This is the office that developed the report. I asked Beamon about the 23 cents. Here's his response: "The quote you cite … did not come from EIA and is not in our report.

That old adage "Lies, damned lies and statistics". Serious mathematians and statistitians must turn in their grave.


More ... read Lisa's full article

Reference:
David Mackay's Book, Without Hot Air

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